After missing that roll, Mike's luck continued to go downhill. I sent a Chraal to base the Champ in case it rallied, but it didn't. The routing Samurai ran off the board. A skeleton critted the other Samurai, and then the Chraal routed that one too. Overall, Mike failed three rout checks and two rally checks, which is just poor luck. Admittedly, two of the rout checks were made out of command, which might have been avoided. But still, it's bad luck.
With nobody on my side of the board left to attack, the Chraals moved in on Ryld, who had been busy kicking the crap out of my Green Dragon for two rounds.
Now, I can't claim I didn't see it coming. I knew if I opened that hole, he'd move through it. But some part of me thought, "Hey, he'll be out of command, and I'll be able to move a Chraal around to kill the Champ pretty quick anyway." This was not smart thinking, for many reasons, but particularly not in light of what happened next.1
Mike won initiative, and made the obvious choice to move the Champ up and swing. He wisely chose to forego the charge, in favor of getting cover from my Chraal's melee reach. Then, he rolled the attack... and it was a 20.
The groan from the crowd was loud and long. I just deflated. At that point, I thought the game was lost for sure. My Blackguard is now at 20 hp, based by an Orc Champion with 60 hp and a bad attitude.
I passed the morale check with the Blackguard, and took a minute to consider my options. My first thought was to heal the Blackguard and move away, taking another AOO and ending up 4 squares away with 5 hp. But I couldn't find a square that would be safe enough to move to, and I had an irrational fear that Mike would crit again on the AOO. My next thought was to move the blue-dot Chraal around the long way to flank with the Blackguard, which would allow a better chance to hit and also trigger the Blackguard's sneak attack. In hindsight, this plan was the best one, but at the time I rejected it because it meant the Chraal would need to take an AOO from the Champ to get the flank. That clearly is no reason to reject a plan that may prevent losing the game outright, but I guess I was rattled. In any event, I decided to simply swing away with the Blackguard and take my chances. The Champ was OOC, and so I was just going to hope Mike failed the morale check. The Blackguard hit twice (thankfully) and Mike's d20 came up 11 — a failure!